MODEL VERDICT
Crawford & Company (CRD-A)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.83 | CURRENT | -0.4% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.61 | Pending | +1.4% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $10.97 | Pending | -5.0% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $10.94 | Monitoring | -4.8% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $11.29 | Monitoring | -15.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $11.24 | +3.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $12.89 | +19.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $17.57 | +62.2% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $20.85 | +92.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $10.87 | +0.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $83.84 | +674.1% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $30.57 | +182.3% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.02 | +38.7% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $9 | $10 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (16%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 |
| Base Case (24.1%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $11 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.24 | 19.53 | 13.14 | 63.72 | 19.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.24 | 13.50 | 9.84 | 35.94 | 9.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.05 | 7.34 | 5.14 | 8.37 | 1.20 |
| P/FCF | 20.64 | 14.38 | 7.07 | 57.66 | 18.81 |
| P/FFO | 9.18 | 9.16 | 5.71 | 15.46 | 3.57 |
| P/AFFO | 15.39 | 12.71 | 6.56 | 27.19 | 7.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.99 | 2.56 | 1.91 | 4.67 | 1.05 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.59 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRD-A's fair value at $15.02 vs the current price of $10.83, implying +38.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.08 (P10) to $17.38 (P90), with a median of $15.18.
CRD-A's current P/E of 20.4x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -3.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.2x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover CRD-A with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying -7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CRD-A's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1600.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.