MODEL VERDICT
Employers Holdings, Inc. (EIG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $41.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $41.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $42.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $41.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $41.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $4.76 | -88.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $74.39 | +77.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $22.80 | -45.6% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $60.47 | +44.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $4.76 | -88.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $66.24 | +58.0% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $65.63 | +56.6% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $13.93 | -66.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.73 | -21.9% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 79× | 86× | 93× (Current) | 100× | 107× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $36 | $39 | $43 | $46 | $49 |
| Conservative (5%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
| Base Case (-35.3%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $31 |
| Bull Case (-48%) | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.86 | 9.92 | 8.11 | 95.93 | 32.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.43 | 7.63 | 5.35 | 73.68 | 25.04 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.18 | 7.29 | 5.38 | 73.68 | 25.11 |
| P/FCF | 41.29 | 22.14 | 12.28 | 164.38 | 54.86 |
| P/FFO | 11.07 | 8.92 | 7.60 | 22.23 | 5.57 |
| P/TBV | 1.16 | 1.22 | 0.84 | 1.41 | 0.20 |
| P/AFFO | 11.57 | 9.22 | 7.94 | 23.36 | 5.87 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.08 | 1.09 | 0.80 | 1.26 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates EIG's fair value at $32.73 vs the current price of $41.92, implying -21.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.80 (P10) to $37.91 (P90), with a median of $33.26.
EIG's current P/E of 93.2x compares to the industry median of 10.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +780.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover EIG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EIG trades at the 9330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EIG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15590.0% to approximately $107. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.