MODEL VERDICT
Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $11.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $10.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $10.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $10.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $8.12 | Pending | +26.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $17.10 | +46.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $5.88 | -49.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $7.53 | -35.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $62.85 | +439.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $52.13 | +347.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $12.65 | +8.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $30.97 | +165.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $7.52 | -35.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $64.85 | +456.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.52 | +67.4% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.78 | 15.54 | 5.45 | 29.36 | 12.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.05 | 7.66 | 5.45 | 125.04 | 68.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.00 | 3.91 | 1.84 | 5.43 | 1.41 |
| P/FFO | 3.67 | 3.22 | 1.58 | 7.32 | 2.17 |
| P/TBV | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.57 | 1.46 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRGY's fair value at $19.52 vs the current price of $11.66, implying +67.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $18.04 (P10) to $29.13 (P90), with a median of $23.39.
CRGY's current P/E of 21.6x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +54.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.8x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover CRGY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $9.00 — $13.00), implying -5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CRGY trades at the 7440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CRGY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (0.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9390.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.