MODEL VERDICT
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $91.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $89.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $86.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $82.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $82.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $111.15 | +21.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $173.86 | +89.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $89.37 | -2.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $91.63 | -0.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $140.45 | +52.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $85.23 | -7.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $66.28 | -27.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $72.40 | -21.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $165.91 | +80.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $90.92 | -1.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.29 | +1.6% | 100% | 82 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $78 | $86 | $94 | $101 | $109 |
| Conservative (5%) | $80 | $88 | $96 | $104 | $112 |
| Base Case (-0.7%) | $76 | $84 | $91 | $99 | $106 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $76 | $83 | $91 | $99 | $106 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.08 | 18.38 | 16.46 | 30.21 | 5.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.23 | 14.68 | 13.06 | 26.22 | 4.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.77 | 14.05 | 12.27 | 22.44 | 3.90 |
| P/FCF | 16.97 | 15.66 | 10.89 | 23.55 | 4.91 |
| P/FFO | 17.61 | 15.80 | 14.46 | 23.61 | 3.76 |
| P/AFFO | 18.69 | 16.94 | 15.02 | 25.37 | 4.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.64 | 5.29 | 4.68 | 6.57 | 0.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.40 | 4.11 | 3.64 | 5.44 | 0.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CSCO's fair value at $93.29 vs the current price of $91.85, implying +1.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.58 (P10) to $119.78 (P90), with a median of $97.36.
CSCO's current P/E of 36.0x compares to the industry median of 35.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +2.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
73 analysts cover CSCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $96.50 (range: $91.00 — $100.00), implying +5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (37), Hold (35), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CSCO trades at the 5710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (21.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CSCO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3380.0% to approximately $61. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.