MODEL VERDICT
Constellium SE (CSTM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $31.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $29.64 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $92.89 | +190.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $87.60 | +173.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $73.83 | +130.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $65.24 | +103.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $100.70 | +214.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $59.39 | +85.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $147.35 | +360.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $148.28 | +363.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $70.20 | +119.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $59.67 | +86.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $68.09 | +112.7% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $26 | $30 | $34 | $38 | $42 |
| Conservative (7%) | $26 | $31 | $35 | $39 | $43 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $27 | $32 | $36 | $40 | $44 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $28 | $33 | $37 | $41 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.35 | 17.00 | 5.77 | 32.68 | 11.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.33 | 15.01 | 8.70 | 22.20 | 4.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.08 | 6.51 | 5.60 | 11.27 | 1.99 |
| P/FCF | 19.33 | 14.80 | 9.32 | 45.13 | 13.34 |
| P/FFO | 5.32 | 5.03 | 2.90 | 8.16 | 1.79 |
| P/TBV | 5.39 | 5.29 | 2.59 | 8.39 | 2.92 |
| P/AFFO | 23.12 | 16.62 | 5.58 | 56.20 | 19.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.68 | 2.76 | 2.08 | 7.96 | 2.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.20 | 0.43 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CSTM's fair value at $68.09 vs the current price of $32.01, implying +112.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $68.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.29 (P10) to $79.44 (P90), with a median of $69.33.
CSTM's current P/E of 16.8x compares to the industry median of 38.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -56.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover CSTM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.67 (range: $32.00 — $40.00), implying +11.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CSTM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 290.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.