Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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CSWC Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $33M | $83M | $71M | $92M | $98M | $98M | $109M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.10 | $2.05 | $1.47 | $1.63 | $1.58 | $1.45 | $1.45 |
| YoY Growth | — | +152.0% | -15.4% | +30.1% | +6.7% | +0.5% | +10.6% |
| Net Margin | 36.6% | 54.8% | 43.1% | 49.5% | 48.8% | 47.0% | 46.7% |
USD · CSWC · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $164M | $185M | $201M | $210M | $233M |
| Net Income | $71M | $92M | $98M | $98M | $109M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.47 | $1.63 | $1.58 | $1.45 | $1.45 |
| Free Cash Flow | $-217M | $27M | $28M | $30M | $33M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying CSWC stock.
Capital Southwest Corporation's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.63. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 30/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Capital Southwest Corporation: Bear case $N/A, Base case $26, and Bull case $63. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Capital Southwest Corporation's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 13.1%, reaching approximately $0.2B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 30/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Capital Southwest Corporation's forward operating margin is estimated at 52.2% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($N/A) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 31.7% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.