MODEL VERDICT
Cintas Corporation (CTAS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $169.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $175.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $179.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $176.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $174.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $98.90 | -41.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $89.81 | -47.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $115.78 | -31.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $71.52 | -57.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $116.41 | -31.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $104.38 | -38.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $65.56 | -61.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $24.44 | -85.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $22.58 | -86.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $137.36 | -19.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $85.82 | -49.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.07 | -37.5% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 33× | 36× | 39× (Current) | 42× | 45× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $155 | $169 | $183 | $197 | $211 |
| Conservative (11%) | $161 | $176 | $190 | $205 | $220 |
| Base Case (16.7%) | $169 | $185 | $200 | $216 | $231 |
| Bull Case (23%) | $178 | $194 | $210 | $227 | $243 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 42.32 | 43.28 | 33.30 | 48.21 | 4.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.75 | 34.71 | 26.75 | 37.41 | 3.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.09 | 27.88 | 21.57 | 31.01 | 3.06 |
| P/FCF | 41.02 | 39.21 | 35.65 | 49.19 | 5.12 |
| P/FFO | 31.61 | 31.89 | 23.66 | 37.51 | 4.55 |
| P/TBV | 139.60 | 145.27 | 79.19 | 188.66 | 49.03 |
| P/AFFO | 38.32 | 36.91 | 30.43 | 47.08 | 5.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 14.14 | 14.41 | 9.81 | 17.50 | 2.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.40 | 6.71 | 4.27 | 7.87 | 1.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTAS's fair value at $106.07 vs the current price of $169.61, implying -37.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $106.74 (P10) to $131.82 (P90), with a median of $119.15.
CTAS's current P/E of 38.5x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +46.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 42.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
30 analysts cover CTAS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $223.40 (range: $184.00 — $250.00), implying +31.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (17), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 17.6% is 3.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (19.8%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$210. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CTAS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2370.0% to approximately $210. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.