MODEL VERDICT
Constant Contact, Inc. (CTCT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $32.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $32.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $56.67 | +77.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $14.77 | -53.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $20.44 | -36.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $20.15 | -37.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $23.60 | -26.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $59.82 | +86.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $55.55 | +73.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $16.44 | -48.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $20.54 | -35.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.97 | +78.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 61× | 67× | 73× (Current) | 79× | 85× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| Conservative (7%) | $29 | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $30 | $32 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 120.44 | 83.41 | 30.54 | 318.50 | 118.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 70.20 | 29.81 | 10.94 | 275.95 | 92.61 |
| P/FCF | 117.56 | 40.31 | 26.26 | 487.33 | 166.47 |
| P/FFO | 46.77 | 33.37 | 13.64 | 105.48 | 32.17 |
| P/TBV | 5.66 | 4.84 | 3.69 | 7.73 | 1.74 |
| P/AFFO | 64.99 | 64.67 | 36.06 | 94.55 | 29.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.36 | 4.24 | 2.16 | 7.36 | 1.55 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 5.33 | 1.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTCT's fair value at $56.97 vs the current price of $32.01, implying +78.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.28 (P10) to $83.59 (P90), with a median of $54.79.
CTCT's current P/E of 72.8x compares to the industry median of 33.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +116.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 120.4x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for CTCT.
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CTCT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (3.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 910.0% to approximately $29. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.