MODEL VERDICT
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $30.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $31.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $31.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $30.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $24.82 | Below threshold | +22.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $28.08 | -8.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $31.75 | +3.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $32.11 | +5.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $48.44 | +58.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $34.42 | +12.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $57.39 | +87.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $44.00 | +43.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $8.54 | -72.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $6.32 | -79.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $32.11 | +5.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $49.98 | +63.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.54 | -6.7% | 100% | 71 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $26 | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
| Conservative (23%) | $28 | $33 | $39 | $44 | $50 |
| Base Case (35.1%) | $30 | $36 | $43 | $49 | $55 |
| Bull Case (47%) | $33 | $40 | $46 | $53 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.85 | 11.70 | 4.84 | 32.56 | 9.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.66 | 9.12 | 4.11 | 25.59 | 7.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.14 | 5.88 | 2.92 | 12.01 | 2.93 |
| P/FCF | 13.55 | 11.06 | 4.98 | 32.32 | 9.48 |
| P/FFO | 6.22 | 5.94 | 3.44 | 10.97 | 2.36 |
| P/TBV | 1.83 | 1.49 | 0.82 | 3.38 | 0.95 |
| P/AFFO | 68.76 | 16.27 | 4.92 | 342.44 | 134.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.49 | 0.82 | 3.38 | 0.95 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.88 | 3.48 | 2.06 | 7.28 | 1.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTRA's fair value at $28.54 vs the current price of $30.59, implying -6.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.45 (P10) to $43.76 (P90), with a median of $36.90.
CTRA's current P/E of 13.6x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -4.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
55 analysts cover CTRA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.40 (range: $28.00 — $36.00), implying +5.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (25), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 62.4% is 56.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (33.2%), with a Z-score of +3.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$17. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CTRA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +3.0σ, meaning margins are 3.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (33.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4590.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.