MODEL VERDICT
CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $40.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $40.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $40.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $38.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $37.33 | Below threshold | +2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $21.57 | -46.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $22.42 | -44.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $30.69 | -24.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $110.57 | +172.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $50.08 | +23.3% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $13.93 | -65.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $9.34 | -77.0% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.76 | -7.0% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $48 | $51 |
| Conservative (14%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| Base Case (21.2%) | $42 | $46 | $49 | $53 | $57 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $44 | $48 | $52 | $57 | $61 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.09 | 42.23 | 23.03 | 103.15 | 25.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 42.64 | 29.04 | 25.24 | 111.24 | 33.70 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.43 | 17.05 | 12.76 | 24.22 | 3.46 |
| P/FCF | 15.95 | 15.62 | 13.10 | 18.73 | 1.91 |
| P/FFO | 22.58 | 19.55 | 15.80 | 41.91 | 8.95 |
| P/TBV | 1.98 | 2.07 | 1.44 | 2.40 | 0.35 |
| P/AFFO | 25.85 | 22.19 | 16.84 | 50.50 | 12.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.98 | 2.07 | 1.43 | 2.40 | 0.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.01 | 12.02 | 9.58 | 18.39 | 2.94 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CTRE's fair value at $37.76 vs the current price of $40.62, implying -7.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.94 (P10) to $48.21 (P90), with a median of $38.50.
CTRE's current P/E of 25.9x compares to the industry median of 70.4x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -63.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
19 analysts cover CTRE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.11 (range: $39.00 — $44.00), implying +3.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 80.6% is 46.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (34.4%), with a Z-score of +2.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$32. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CTRE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +2.4σ, meaning margins are 2.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (34.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2250.0% to approximately $32. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.