MODEL VERDICT
Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $16.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $16.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $17.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $17.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $25.89 | +57.7% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 3 REIT peers | $46.01 | +180.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $24.16 | +47.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $23.35 | +42.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $22.35 | +36.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $2.55 | -84.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $7.30 | -55.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $23.13 | +40.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $27.24 | +65.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.40 | +48.6% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 138× | 151× | 164× (Current) | 177× | 190× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 |
| Base Case (-33.5%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Bull Case (-45%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 105.83 | 39.26 | 27.25 | 383.00 | 130.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 49.04 | 40.84 | 29.63 | 89.67 | 20.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.33 | 18.88 | 13.16 | 25.06 | 5.13 |
| P/FCF | 16.24 | 15.01 | 8.94 | 24.47 | 5.72 |
| P/FFO | 13.80 | 11.16 | 9.90 | 23.91 | 5.07 |
| P/TBV | 2.10 | 1.97 | 1.48 | 2.94 | 0.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.96 | 1.85 | 1.35 | 2.72 | 0.53 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.74 | 6.56 | 3.97 | 13.60 | 3.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates DOC's fair value at $24.40 vs the current price of $16.42, implying +48.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.73 (P10) to $32.19 (P90), with a median of $27.45.
DOC's current P/E of 164.2x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +545.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 105.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
40 analysts cover DOC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.86 (range: $17.00 — $21.00), implying +8.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (18), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DOC trades at the 8180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (105.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DOC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 28050.0% to approximately $62. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.