MODEL VERDICT
Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (DOC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $17.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $16.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $16.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $17.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $16.71 | Below threshold | +0.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $24.47 | +38.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $22.25 | +25.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $20.30 | +14.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $3.62 | -79.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $8.87 | -49.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $19.09 | +8.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $25.84 | +46.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.87 | +18.1% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 149× | 163× | 177× (Current) | 191× | 205× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 | $21 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Base Case (-33.5%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (-45%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 105.83 | 39.26 | 27.25 | 383.00 | 130.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 49.04 | 40.84 | 29.63 | 89.67 | 20.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.33 | 18.88 | 13.16 | 25.06 | 5.13 |
| P/FCF | 16.24 | 15.01 | 8.94 | 24.47 | 5.72 |
| P/FFO | 13.80 | 11.16 | 9.90 | 23.91 | 5.07 |
| P/TBV | 2.10 | 1.97 | 1.48 | 2.94 | 0.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.96 | 1.85 | 1.35 | 2.72 | 0.53 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.74 | 6.56 | 3.97 | 13.60 | 3.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates DOC's fair value at $20.87 vs the current price of $17.68, implying +18.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.87 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.05 (P10) to $26.33 (P90), with a median of $21.66.
DOC's current P/E of 176.8x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +388.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 105.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
40 analysts cover DOC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.33 (range: $17.00 — $21.00), implying +3.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (18), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DOC trades at the 8180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (105.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DOC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (14.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25330.0% to approximately $62. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.