MODEL VERDICT
Welltower Inc. (WELL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $216.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $208.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $210.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $211.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $207.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $72.17 | -66.7% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 1 REIT peers | $143.89 | -33.7% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $42.62 | -80.4% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $51.23 | -76.4% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $108.95 | -49.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $35.38 | -83.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $75.88 | -65.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $131.85 | -39.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $111.52 | -48.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.04 | -58.0% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 132× | 144× | 156× (Current) | 168× | 180× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $187 | $204 | $221 | $238 | $255 |
| Conservative (5%) | $193 | $210 | $228 | $245 | $263 |
| Base Case (-9.8%) | $165 | $181 | $196 | $211 | $226 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $159 | $174 | $188 | $202 | $217 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 104.78 | 109.96 | 26.81 | 218.50 | 67.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 177.30 | 77.23 | 43.81 | 828.67 | 287.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.65 | 25.55 | 21.10 | 57.13 | 12.73 |
| P/FCF | 29.10 | 29.15 | 20.02 | 44.29 | 8.50 |
| P/FFO | 24.45 | 26.23 | 13.30 | 41.01 | 9.50 |
| P/TBV | 2.00 | 1.93 | 1.43 | 2.92 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 24.87 | 26.72 | 13.41 | 41.47 | 9.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.99 | 1.93 | 1.43 | 2.92 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.75 | 7.22 | 5.28 | 11.82 | 2.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates WELL's fair value at $91.04 vs the current price of $216.91, implying -58.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.70 (P10) to $107.24 (P90), with a median of $91.86.
WELL's current P/E of 156.1x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +513.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 104.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
34 analysts cover WELL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $226.50 (range: $208.00 — $240.00), implying +4.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (20), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WELL trades at the 6360th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (104.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WELL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3680.0% to approximately $137. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.