MODEL VERDICT
Welltower Inc. (WELL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $207.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $208.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $210.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $200.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $186.08 | Below threshold | +6.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $60.75 | -70.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $98.56 | -52.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $50.27 | -75.7% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $94.45 | -54.4% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $133.43 | -35.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $93.78 | -54.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $100.83 | -51.3% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 125× | 137× | 149× (Current) | 161× | 173× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $177 | $194 | $211 | $228 | $245 |
| Conservative (5%) | $182 | $200 | $217 | $235 | $252 |
| Base Case (-9.8%) | $157 | $172 | $187 | $202 | $217 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $151 | $165 | $180 | $194 | $208 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 104.78 | 109.96 | 26.81 | 218.50 | 67.60 |
| EV/EBIT | 92.56 | 77.23 | 43.81 | 235.53 | 64.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.26 | 25.55 | 21.10 | 47.46 | 9.32 |
| P/FCF | 29.03 | 29.15 | 20.02 | 43.77 | 8.35 |
| P/FFO | 24.56 | 26.23 | 13.30 | 41.74 | 9.71 |
| P/TBV | 2.03 | 1.93 | 1.43 | 3.13 | 0.58 |
| P/AFFO | 22.10 | 23.89 | 13.41 | 29.82 | 6.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.99 | 1.93 | 1.43 | 2.92 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.72 | 7.22 | 5.28 | 11.64 | 2.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates WELL's fair value at $100.83 vs the current price of $207.12, implying -51.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $100.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.44 (P10) to $129.19 (P90), with a median of $102.69.
WELL's current P/E of 149.0x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +312.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 104.8x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
34 analysts cover WELL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $221.45 (range: $182.00 — $246.00), implying +6.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (20), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WELL trades at the 6360th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (104.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WELL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 560.0% to approximately $195. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.