MODEL VERDICT
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $52.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $51.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $51.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $50.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $47.28 | Below threshold | +4.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $29.53 | -43.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $16.33 | -68.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $27.34 | -47.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $23.18 | -55.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $124.54 | +138.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $107.26 | +105.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.97 | -36.9% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates AHR's fair value at $32.97 vs the current price of $52.24, implying -36.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.76 (P10) to $41.83 (P90), with a median of $34.73.
AHR's current P/E of -180.1x compares to the industry median of 39.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -555.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover AHR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.43 (range: $43.00 — $55.00), implying -3.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AHR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.