MODEL VERDICT
Ventas, Inc. (VTR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $86.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $85.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $85.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $83.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $74.90 | Below threshold | +10.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $42.45 | -50.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 16 industry peers | $43.43 | -49.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $19.53 | -77.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $25.19 | -70.8% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $70.66 | -18.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 15 industry peers | $70.60 | -18.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.25 | -40.5% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 134× | 147× | 160× (Current) | 173× | 186× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $74 | $81 | $88 | $95 | $102 |
| Conservative (5%) | $76 | $83 | $91 | $98 | $105 |
| Base Case (-14.3%) | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 | $86 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $58 | $64 | $70 | $75 | $81 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 187.55 | 143.30 | 41.91 | 393.23 | 157.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 55.44 | 57.18 | 37.04 | 71.23 | 12.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.70 | 18.25 | 17.22 | 21.96 | 1.66 |
| P/FCF | 26.87 | 25.25 | 20.04 | 33.78 | 5.12 |
| P/FFO | 15.82 | 14.72 | 11.76 | 21.95 | 3.28 |
| P/TBV | 2.35 | 2.25 | 1.83 | 3.50 | 0.56 |
| P/AFFO | 23.79 | 23.72 | 17.74 | 32.24 | 5.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.06 | 2.03 | 1.65 | 2.76 | 0.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.03 | 4.98 | 4.07 | 6.14 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates VTR's fair value at $51.25 vs the current price of $86.16, implying -40.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.90 (P10) to $63.43 (P90), with a median of $55.55.
VTR's current P/E of 159.6x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +341.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 187.5x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover VTR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $88.70 (range: $74.00 — $100.00), implying +2.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VTR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 940.0% to approximately $94. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.