MODEL VERDICT
Ventas, Inc. (VTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $88.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $83.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $85.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $84.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $84.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 9 REIT peers | $56.20 | -36.2% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 1 REIT peers | $132.69 | +50.7% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $52.62 | -40.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $34.46 | -60.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $46.62 | -47.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $13.75 | -84.4% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $20.49 | -76.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $97.15 | +10.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $86.66 | -1.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $59.01 | -33.0% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 137× | 150× | 163× (Current) | 176× | 189× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $75 | $83 | $90 | $97 | $104 |
| Conservative (5%) | $78 | $85 | $92 | $100 | $107 |
| Base Case (-14.3%) | $63 | $69 | $75 | $81 | $87 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $60 | $65 | $71 | $77 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 187.55 | 143.30 | 41.91 | 393.23 | 157.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 55.42 | 57.18 | 37.04 | 71.23 | 12.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.69 | 18.25 | 17.22 | 21.88 | 1.64 |
| P/FCF | 20.58 | 21.62 | 14.18 | 27.19 | 4.47 |
| P/FFO | 15.82 | 14.72 | 11.76 | 21.95 | 3.28 |
| P/TBV | 2.30 | 2.25 | 1.83 | 3.10 | 0.43 |
| P/AFFO | 19.16 | 18.14 | 12.99 | 28.26 | 4.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.07 | 2.03 | 1.65 | 2.84 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.03 | 4.98 | 4.07 | 6.14 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates VTR's fair value at $59.01 vs the current price of $88.02, implying -33.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $59.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.96 (P10) to $59.72 (P90), with a median of $53.30.
VTR's current P/E of 163.0x compares to the industry median of 25.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +540.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 187.5x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover VTR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $90.80 (range: $85.00 — $100.00), implying +3.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (11), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that VTR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 800.0% to approximately $95. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.