MODEL VERDICT
CubeSmart (CUBE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $41.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $40.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $38.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $38.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $37.68 | Below threshold | +1.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $31.73 | -22.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $62.06 | +50.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $23.13 | -43.8% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $47.82 | +16.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $47.96 | +16.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $44.73 | +8.7% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $38.35 | -6.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.77 | +11.3% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| Conservative (20%) | $41 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Base Case (31.3%) | $45 | $50 | $54 | $59 | $63 |
| Bull Case (42%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $69 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 39.64 | 32.60 | 24.91 | 71.55 | 16.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.88 | 32.52 | 26.34 | 51.16 | 8.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.97 | 18.36 | 11.77 | 28.45 | 5.35 |
| P/FCF | 18.32 | 17.49 | 15.37 | 25.97 | 3.60 |
| P/FFO | 17.47 | 17.02 | 9.78 | 25.61 | 4.85 |
| P/TBV | 3.37 | 3.24 | 3.02 | 4.04 | 0.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.33 | 3.23 | 3.00 | 3.89 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.01 | 9.21 | 8.90 | 14.18 | 1.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CUBE's fair value at $45.77 vs the current price of $41.14, implying +11.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.54 (P10) to $54.80 (P90), with a median of $46.05.
CUBE's current P/E of 23.9x compares to the industry median of 27.8x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -14.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 39.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
29 analysts cover CUBE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $41.75 (range: $37.00 — $48.00), implying +1.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CUBE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (28.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4440.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.