MODEL VERDICT
CubeSmart (CUBE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $40.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $39.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $39.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $38.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $38.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 4 REIT peers | $39.22 | -2.2% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 3 REIT peers | $43.08 | +7.4% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $37.26 | -7.1% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $42.98 | +7.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $23.17 | -42.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $44.20 | +10.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $44.01 | +9.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $43.23 | +7.8% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $37.61 | -6.3% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.06 | +7.3% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $36 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $49 |
| Base Case (11.4%) | $37 | $41 | $44 | $47 | $50 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $39 | $42 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.51 | 31.20 | 24.69 | 71.55 | 17.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.22 | 32.52 | 26.34 | 51.16 | 8.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.67 | 18.36 | 13.87 | 28.45 | 4.68 |
| P/FCF | 17.91 | 17.16 | 14.57 | 25.97 | 3.87 |
| P/FFO | 18.07 | 17.02 | 13.96 | 25.61 | 3.91 |
| P/TBV | 3.37 | 3.24 | 2.98 | 4.04 | 0.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.33 | 3.23 | 2.97 | 3.89 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.79 | 9.21 | 7.36 | 14.18 | 2.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates CUBE's fair value at $43.06 vs the current price of $40.12, implying +7.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.24 (P10) to $45.55 (P90), with a median of $42.34.
CUBE's current P/E of 27.5x compares to the industry median of 30.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -9.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover CUBE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $41.50 (range: $37.00 — $48.00), implying +3.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CUBE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (28.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3400.0% to approximately $54. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.