MODEL VERDICT
Customers Bancorp, Inc. (CUBI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $77.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $74.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $77.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $75.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $73.99 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $76.43 | -0.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $70.88 | -8.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $98.42 | +27.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $9.92 | -87.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $76.43 | -0.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $87.30 | +13.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $64.08 | -16.9% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $51 | $64 | $77 | $90 | $103 |
| Conservative (6%) | $52 | $66 | $79 | $92 | $105 |
| Base Case (8.8%) | $54 | $67 | $81 | $94 | $108 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $56 | $69 | $83 | $97 | $111 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.02 | 7.87 | 4.35 | 11.79 | 3.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.62 | 6.79 | 5.49 | 20.73 | 6.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.57 | 6.19 | 5.03 | 18.40 | 5.65 |
| P/FCF | 14.70 | 14.59 | 4.68 | 26.71 | 9.44 |
| P/FFO | 6.56 | 6.57 | 3.73 | 9.77 | 2.20 |
| P/TBV | 0.97 | 0.87 | 0.52 | 1.62 | 0.38 |
| P/AFFO | 9.27 | 7.70 | 4.72 | 17.58 | 4.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.52 | 1.61 | 0.38 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.49 | 1.30 | 0.96 | 2.61 | 0.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CUBI's fair value at $64.08 vs the current price of $77.08, implying -16.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $64.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.25 (P10) to $71.72 (P90), with a median of $65.39.
CUBI's current P/E of 12.4x compares to the industry median of 12.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +0.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
17 analysts cover CUBI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $89.17 (range: $71.00 — $100.00), implying +15.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (8), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CUBI trades at the 4370th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CUBI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1650.0% to approximately $64. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.