MODEL VERDICT
CureVac N.V. (CVAC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $4.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $4.66 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $23.59 | +406.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $15.70 | +236.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $9.88 | +112.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $21.49 | +361.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $10.98 | +135.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $23.78 | +410.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $23.11 | +395.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $19.11 | +310.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $10.74 | +130.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.73 | +366.2% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.03 | 2.27 | 1.14 | 15.37 | 6.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.88 | 2.14 | 1.10 | 15.07 | 6.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 63.35 | 17.29 | 1.44 | 219.16 | 89.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVAC's fair value at $21.73 vs the current price of $4.66, implying +366.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.25 (P10) to $27.55 (P90), with a median of $20.49.
CVAC's current P/E of 6.5x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -70.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover CVAC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $21.00 (range: $5.00 — $37.00), implying +350.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CVAC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.