MODEL VERDICT
CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $20.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $20.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $20.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $20.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $20.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $20.10 | -1.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $20.78 | +1.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $16.79 | -17.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $31.52 | +54.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $20.10 | -1.7% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $15.70 | -23.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.76 | +1.5% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 | $26 |
| Conservative (5%) | $14 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Base Case (3.2%) | $14 | $17 | $20 | $24 | $27 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $14 | $17 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.08 | 14.58 | 12.24 | 15.42 | 1.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.05 | 12.11 | 4.51 | 15.37 | 4.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.65 | 12.11 | 4.53 | 14.53 | 3.93 |
| P/FCF | 13.09 | 13.43 | 9.60 | 15.21 | 2.07 |
| P/FFO | 13.35 | 13.73 | 11.28 | 15.09 | 1.42 |
| P/TBV | 2.21 | 2.10 | 1.66 | 3.11 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 13.66 | 14.06 | 11.49 | 15.50 | 1.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.41 | 1.36 | 1.10 | 1.85 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.25 | 5.55 | 3.93 | 6.42 | 1.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVBF's fair value at $20.76 vs the current price of $20.45, implying +1.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.02 (P10) to $22.88 (P90), with a median of $21.40.
CVBF's current P/E of 13.5x compares to the industry median of 13.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +1.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
16 analysts cover CVBF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.75 (range: $22.50 — $27.00), implying +21.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVBF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1950.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.