MODEL VERDICT
Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $29.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $26.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $24.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $25.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $25.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $41.09 | +40.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $55.67 | +90.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $40.92 | +39.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $28.81 | -1.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $35.35 | +20.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $21.82 | -25.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $26.02 | -11.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $28.60 | -2.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $41.03 | +40.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $28.85 | -1.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.42 | +17.6% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $31 | $36 | $40 | $45 | $49 |
| Conservative (7%) | $32 | $37 | $41 | $46 | $50 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $33 | $38 | $43 | $47 | $52 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $34 | $39 | $44 | $49 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.15 | 7.86 | 5.70 | 42.34 | 14.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.76 | 8.93 | 4.83 | 15.94 | 4.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.34 | 3.87 | 3.06 | 21.25 | 6.61 |
| P/FCF | 7.44 | 7.09 | 5.09 | 10.37 | 1.98 |
| P/FFO | 4.09 | 3.52 | 2.72 | 6.84 | 1.41 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.52 | 1.58 | 0.35 |
| P/AFFO | 10.86 | 7.20 | 3.67 | 32.84 | 9.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.44 | 1.41 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVE's fair value at $34.42 vs the current price of $29.27, implying +17.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.42 (P10) to $40.04 (P90), with a median of $34.18.
CVE's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 19.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -2.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.2x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
27 analysts cover CVE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.67 (range: $22.00 — $32.00), implying -5.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CVE trades at the 4290th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1720.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.