MODEL VERDICT
Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $22.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $22.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $21.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $21.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.41 | Pending | +28.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $19.02 | -14.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $28.88 | +29.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $34.40 | +54.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $23.60 | +5.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $17.13 | -23.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $19.49 | -12.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $40.15 | +80.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $32.78 | +46.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $35.01 | +56.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $24.23 | +8.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.01 | +12.1% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $27 | $31 | $36 | $40 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $27 | $32 | $37 | $41 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $28 | $33 | $38 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $24 | $29 | $34 | $39 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.15 | 7.86 | 5.70 | 42.34 | 14.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.76 | 8.93 | 4.83 | 15.94 | 4.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.34 | 3.87 | 3.06 | 21.25 | 6.61 |
| P/FCF | 7.44 | 7.09 | 5.09 | 10.37 | 1.98 |
| P/FFO | 4.09 | 3.52 | 2.72 | 6.84 | 1.41 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.52 | 1.58 | 0.35 |
| P/AFFO | 10.86 | 7.20 | 3.67 | 32.84 | 9.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.94 | 0.97 | 0.44 | 1.41 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.49 | 0.62 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CVE's fair value at $25.01 vs the current price of $22.31, implying +12.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.23 (P10) to $30.70 (P90), with a median of $24.90.
CVE's current P/E of 14.2x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -11.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.2x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
27 analysts cover CVE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.67 (range: $22.00 — $32.00), implying +24.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (15), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CVE trades at the 3330th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CVE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 870.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.