Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)
Valuation Overview•Is Cenovus Energy Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 57/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
CVE demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-11.6% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 14.0%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.4B | -14.0% | -11.6% | +29.0% | +15.7% | |
| EBITDA | $3.8B | — | -13.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.6B | +25.0% | -15.2% | — | +20.3% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.84 | +28.7% | -12.4% | — | +11.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.0B | -19.3% | -23.6% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 19.6% | 18.5% | 19.6% | 16.9% |
| Operating Margin | 14.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.0% |
| Net Margin | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
| FCF Margin | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.56 | $0.61 | +8.9% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.28 | $0.36 | +28.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.40 | $0.52 | +30.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.14 | $0.33 | +135.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.29 | $0.32 | +10.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.34 | $0.31 | -8.8% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.52 | $0.39 | -25.0% | ||
| Q2'24 | $0.35 | $0.46 | +31.4% |
Total return is +75.9% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +50.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +45.3% | +35.9% | — |
| 1Y | +75.9% | +50.9% | +4.1% |
| 3YCAGR | +17.8% | -1.1% | +10.2% |
| 5YCAGR | +23.2% | +11.1% | +23.2% |
| 10YCAGR | +6.8% | -6.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) valuation, health, and returns.
Cenovus Energy Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +36.1% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $34.25)
Cenovus Energy Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $34.25 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $38.50 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $29.00 (implying +15.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Cenovus Energy Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 57/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.9%.
Cenovus Energy Inc. pays a 2.2% dividend yield, covered by a 36% payout ratio with 5 years of growth, supplemented by a 3.7% buyback yield.
Cenovus Energy Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -14.0% 1Y revenue growth and +28.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -11.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 27 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +15.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Cenovus Energy Inc. include: -20.9% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.09x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.