MODEL VERDICT
Crane NXT, Co. (CXT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $44.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $44.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $46.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $45.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $43.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $45.25 | +1.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $48.45 | +8.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $83.38 | +87.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $40.10 | -10.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $63.87 | +43.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $35.49 | -20.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $24.84 | -44.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $35.73 | -19.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $39.23 | -12.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $80.93 | +81.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $33.84 | -24.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $40.93 | -8.2% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $33 | $39 | $46 | $52 | $59 |
| Conservative (5%) | $33 | $40 | $47 | $54 | $60 |
| Base Case (6.3%) | $34 | $41 | $47 | $54 | $61 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $35 | $42 | $48 | $55 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.14 | 8.45 | 4.56 | 18.25 | 6.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.83 | 8.70 | 4.62 | 14.64 | 3.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.47 | 6.92 | 3.63 | 11.29 | 2.59 |
| P/FCF | 8.65 | 5.55 | 4.51 | 19.95 | 5.83 |
| P/FFO | 7.80 | 6.98 | 3.36 | 12.42 | 3.44 |
| P/AFFO | 9.38 | 9.56 | 4.41 | 14.92 | 3.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.90 | 1.15 | 1.00 | 3.39 | 1.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.30 | 1.48 | 0.46 | 2.35 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CXT's fair value at $40.93 vs the current price of $44.60, implying -8.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $40.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $37.64 (P10) to $51.95 (P90), with a median of $44.65.
CXT's current P/E of 14.0x compares to the industry median of 26.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -46.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover CXT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $64.50 (range: $58.00 — $73.00), implying +44.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CXT trades at the 420th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CXT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3380.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.