MODEL VERDICT
Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH)
Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $3.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $3.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $3.32 | Pending | -5.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $173.72 | +4920.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $74.92 | +2065.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 22 industry peers | $26.30 | +660.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $157.92 | +4464.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $30.59 | +784.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $132.85 | +3739.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $98.22 | +2738.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $80.36 | +2222.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $26.83 | +675.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $90.64 | +2519.6% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 5× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $15 | $15 | $15 | $15 | $19 |
| Conservative (5%) | $16 | $16 | $16 | $16 | $20 |
| Base Case (-3.0%) | $15 | $15 | $15 | $15 | $18 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $14 | $14 | $14 | $14 | $18 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.61 | 4.63 | 0.83 | 12.34 | 5.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.80 | 15.23 | 11.00 | 21.07 | 3.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.66 | 9.08 | 0.43 | 13.14 | 4.21 |
| P/FCF | 1.94 | 2.02 | 0.50 | 3.29 | 1.40 |
| P/FFO | 1.30 | 1.14 | 0.45 | 2.63 | 0.82 |
| P/AFFO | 4.61 | 4.37 | 0.70 | 9.01 | 4.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates CYH's fair value at $90.64 vs the current price of $3.46, implying +2519.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $90.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.62 (P10) to $103.99 (P90), with a median of $85.51.
CYH's current P/E of 0.9x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -95.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.6x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover CYH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $3.40 (range: $2.00 — $4.50), implying -1.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (21), Sell (8), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 4.1% is 3.9 percentage points above the 4-year average (0.1%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$1. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CYH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (0.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7800.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.