MODEL VERDICT
DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $176.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $176.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $160.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $185.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $215.56 | Below threshold | -13.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $30.75 | -82.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $36.95 | -79.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $33.29 | -81.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $54.85 | -68.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $16.61 | -90.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $48.00 | -72.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $70.45 | -60.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $73.75 | -58.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $45.30 | -74.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $54.85 | -68.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $117.71 | -33.3% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 69× | 76× | 83× (Current) | 90× | 97× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $153 | $168 | $184 | $199 | $215 |
| Conservative (7%) | $157 | $172 | $188 | $204 | $220 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $162 | $178 | $194 | $211 | $227 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $167 | $184 | $201 | $218 | $235 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 197.35 | 70.79 | 28.81 | 863.45 | 327.94 |
| P/TBV | 14.60 | 11.07 | 2.07 | 43.93 | 15.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.70 | 7.47 | 1.89 | 10.75 | 3.83 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.77 | 5.62 | 2.75 | 10.26 | 2.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates DASH's fair value at $117.71 vs the current price of $176.47, implying -33.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $117.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.25 (P10) to $258.03 (P90), with a median of $107.69.
DASH's current P/E of 82.8x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +430.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
38 analysts cover DASH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $261.50 (range: $200.00 — $350.00), implying +48.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (28), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DASH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.