Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$24.99
→
Intrinsic$68.16
+173%
$44.83$68.16$112.48
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests DBX could have 173% upside at 18% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $25, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 18%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $45 → Bull $112. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 14% | 16% | 18% | 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $84 | $91 | $99 | $108 |
| 10% | $58 | $63 | $68 | $74 |
| 12% | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| 14% | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($112) offers 350% upside at 22% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (18%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($45) with 14% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.03B
Year 2$1.22B
Year 3$1.44B
Year 4$1.70B
Year 5$2.00B
Terminal$29.46B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate18.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$871.60MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.