MODEL VERDICT
Douglas Emmett, Inc. (DEI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $10.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $10.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $10.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $10.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 10 REIT peers | $21.28 | +94.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 8 REIT peers | $15.08 | +37.8% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $14.96 | +36.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $16.12 | +47.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $26.04 | +138.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $3.08 | -71.8% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $17.44 | +59.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $25.65 | +134.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.43 | +68.5% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 70× | 77× | 84× (Current) | 91× | 98× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 46.87 | 50.66 | 31.17 | 61.48 | 11.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.22 | 12.52 | 10.63 | 18.46 | 2.55 |
| P/FCF | 26.20 | 31.27 | 10.34 | 41.74 | 12.98 |
| P/FFO | 9.13 | 8.08 | 5.86 | 13.47 | 3.04 |
| P/TBV | 1.16 | 1.28 | 0.64 | 1.74 | 0.45 |
| P/AFFO | 21.80 | 16.29 | 10.78 | 41.88 | 13.67 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.16 | 1.28 | 0.64 | 1.74 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.02 | 5.76 | 2.41 | 8.07 | 2.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates DEI's fair value at $18.43 vs the current price of $10.94, implying +68.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.27 (P10) to $22.04 (P90), with a median of $19.03.
DEI's current P/E of 84.2x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +255.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover DEI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.30 (range: $11.00 — $15.00), implying +12.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (22), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DEI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.