MODEL VERDICT
Dollar General Corporation (DG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $156.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $150.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $153.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $146.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $142.74 | Below threshold | +3.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $180.37 | +15.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $133.38 | -14.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $187.75 | +20.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $282.62 | +80.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $87.17 | -44.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $265.64 | +70.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $209.60 | +34.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $259.72 | +66.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $176.11 | +12.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $254.97 | +63.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $171.05 | +9.5% | 100% | 91 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $141 | $151 | $162 | $172 | $182 |
| Conservative (5%) | $145 | $156 | $166 | $177 | $188 |
| Base Case (-5.1%) | $131 | $141 | $150 | $160 | $170 |
| Bull Case (-7%) | $128 | $138 | $147 | $157 | $167 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.07 | 19.80 | 14.84 | 23.49 | 3.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.69 | 19.40 | 14.84 | 22.46 | 2.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.59 | 15.70 | 12.21 | 18.42 | 2.67 |
| P/FCF | 40.30 | 27.70 | 9.89 | 131.44 | 41.55 |
| P/FFO | 14.92 | 16.29 | 7.96 | 18.29 | 3.87 |
| P/TBV | 2317.74 | 34.58 | 8.90 | 15999.61 | 6033.17 |
| P/AFFO | 27.94 | 28.10 | 21.20 | 36.92 | 6.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.29 | 6.01 | 2.25 | 10.06 | 2.79 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.20 | 1.45 | 0.41 | 1.63 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DG's fair value at $171.05 vs the current price of $156.26, implying +9.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $171.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $158.03 (P10) to $220.98 (P90), with a median of $186.42.
DG's current P/E of 30.6x compares to the industry median of 36.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -16.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.1x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
50 analysts cover DG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $143.17 (range: $111.00 — $170.00), implying -8.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (26), Hold (20), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DG trades at the 2220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2580.0% to approximately $197. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.