MODEL VERDICT
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $126.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $134.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $126.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $121.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $132.38 | Below threshold | -7.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $159.21 | +25.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $120.17 | -5.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $266.82 | +111.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $142.65 | +12.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $291.26 | +130.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $82.22 | -35.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $86.30 | -31.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $240.71 | +90.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $161.20 | +27.5% | 100% | 85 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.52 | 21.92 | 19.12 | 27.10 | 3.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.39 | 20.55 | 15.26 | 25.30 | 3.57 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.31 | 16.50 | 11.44 | 17.53 | 2.43 |
| P/FCF | 42.10 | 26.90 | 10.36 | 87.80 | 31.55 |
| P/FFO | 14.90 | 15.48 | 12.64 | 16.00 | 1.54 |
| P/TBV | 10.12 | 10.14 | 4.53 | 19.13 | 5.52 |
| P/AFFO | 37.31 | 37.56 | 22.69 | 51.44 | 12.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.86 | 3.82 | 3.52 | 4.26 | 0.30 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.28 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 2.06 | 0.48 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates DLTR's fair value at $161.20 vs the current price of $126.48, implying +27.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $161.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $145.28 (P10) to $206.27 (P90), with a median of $174.68.
DLTR's current P/E of -9.0x compares to the industry median of 31.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -128.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
47 analysts cover DLTR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $127.22 (range: $75.00 — $165.00), implying +0.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (25), Hold (16), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DLTR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.