MODEL VERDICT
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $94.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $103.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $105.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $101.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $99.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $148.85 | +57.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $133.09 | +40.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $157.11 | +66.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $122.53 | +29.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $131.86 | +39.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $112.70 | +19.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $13.82 | -85.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $79.42 | -16.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $92.61 | -2.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $151.00 | +59.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $120.15 | +26.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $128.66 | +35.9% | 100% | 88 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $73 | $85 | $97 | $109 | $121 |
| Conservative (5%) | $75 | $87 | $100 | $112 | $125 |
| Base Case (1.0%) | $72 | $84 | $96 | $108 | $120 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $72 | $84 | $96 | $108 | $120 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.16 | 20.71 | 19.12 | 27.10 | 3.41 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.09 | 19.62 | 15.26 | 25.30 | 3.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.98 | 16.29 | 11.44 | 17.53 | 2.38 |
| P/FCF | 42.28 | 26.90 | 10.36 | 87.80 | 31.42 |
| P/FFO | 14.55 | 15.22 | 12.64 | 16.00 | 1.55 |
| P/TBV | 9.76 | 8.64 | 4.53 | 19.13 | 5.13 |
| P/AFFO | 36.22 | 31.86 | 22.69 | 51.44 | 11.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.28 | 4.07 | 3.52 | 6.76 | 1.13 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.33 | 1.22 | 0.92 | 2.06 | 0.45 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DLTR's fair value at $128.66 vs the current price of $94.67, implying +35.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $128.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $119.92 (P10) to $160.21 (P90), with a median of $139.37.
DLTR's current P/E of 15.9x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -39.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.2x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
47 analysts cover DLTR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $129.00 (range: $75.00 — $165.00), implying +36.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (24), Hold (17), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DLTR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (1.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7780.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.