MODEL VERDICT
Target Corporation (TGT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $113.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $116.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $115.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $113.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $105.52 | Pending | +9.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $201.68 | +77.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $271.89 | +138.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $325.53 | +186.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $357.45 | +214.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $270.71 | +137.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $389.83 | +242.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $203.22 | +78.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $298.24 | +162.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $309.58 | +172.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $305.36 | +168.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $322.47 | +183.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $232.83 | +104.6% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $82 | $100 | $118 | $137 | $155 |
| Conservative (5%) | $84 | $102 | $121 | $140 | $158 |
| Base Case (6.9%) | $85 | $104 | $123 | $142 | $161 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $87 | $107 | $126 | $145 | $165 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.87 | 16.41 | 11.99 | 24.92 | 4.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.50 | 14.30 | 11.40 | 22.08 | 3.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.15 | 10.29 | 7.06 | 13.02 | 1.82 |
| P/FCF | 15.92 | 15.25 | 11.33 | 22.44 | 3.79 |
| P/FFO | 10.52 | 11.23 | 6.51 | 13.02 | 2.35 |
| P/TBV | 5.89 | 5.93 | 3.33 | 9.37 | 1.92 |
| P/AFFO | 21.27 | 20.04 | 14.93 | 30.90 | 5.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.59 | 5.59 | 3.12 | 8.89 | 1.82 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.47 | 1.08 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates TGT's fair value at $232.83 vs the current price of $113.79, implying +104.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $232.83 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $222.97 (P10) to $270.85 (P90), with a median of $246.30.
TGT's current P/E of 12.8x compares to the industry median of 36.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -65.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
58 analysts cover TGT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $102.87 (range: $80.00 — $130.00), implying -9.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (28), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TGT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5310.0% to approximately $174. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.