MODEL VERDICT
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $46.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $39.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $37.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $40.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $41.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $41.86 | -10.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $96.79 | +107.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $5.24 | -88.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $95.59 | +104.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $119.31 | +155.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $124.79 | +167.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $5.26 | -88.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.65 | -0.2% | 100% | 72 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.98 | 8.45 | 7.50 | 86.00 | 45.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.73 | 9.96 | 7.24 | 11.78 | 2.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.85 | 5.73 | 5.29 | 11.64 | 2.69 |
| P/FCF | 24.79 | 13.84 | 2.76 | 81.84 | 32.42 |
| P/FFO | 5.16 | 4.67 | 3.63 | 8.14 | 1.73 |
| P/TBV | 53.58 | 5.11 | 2.95 | 201.14 | 98.38 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.78 | 1.77 | 1.05 | 3.29 | 0.76 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates DK's fair value at $46.65 vs the current price of $46.73, implying -0.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.32 (P10) to $53.51 (P90), with a median of $46.24.
DK's current P/E of -123.0x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -555.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover DK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $44.33 (range: $34.00 — $55.00), implying -5.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.