MODEL VERDICT
PBF Energy Inc. (PBF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $43.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $40.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $37.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $40.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $40.67 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $66.06 | +53.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $34.23 | -20.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $209.25 | +386.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $173.65 | +303.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $52.36 | +21.8% | 100% | 50 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.79 | 4.74 | 1.79 | 11.88 | 4.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.02 | 5.07 | 1.47 | 8.45 | 3.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.34 | 4.87 | 1.20 | 9.02 | 3.14 |
| P/FCF | 5.98 | 7.10 | 1.25 | 8.45 | 3.22 |
| P/FFO | 7.58 | 3.60 | 1.52 | 28.47 | 10.40 |
| P/TBV | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.39 | 1.07 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 4.65 | 3.09 | 1.86 | 10.56 | 3.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.39 | 1.07 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates PBF's fair value at $52.36 vs the current price of $43.00, implying +21.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $52.36 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $54.45 (P10) to $70.05 (P90), with a median of $62.18.
PBF's current P/E of -30.9x compares to the industry median of 27.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -214.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.8x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
26 analysts cover PBF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $38.00 (range: $23.00 — $49.00), implying -11.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (15), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PBF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.