MODEL VERDICT
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $33.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $30.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $32.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $32.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $33.65 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $0.95 | -97.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $0.32 | -99.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $13.82 | -59.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $32.14 | -4.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.30 | -60.5% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 169.67 | 18.64 | 13.31 | 532.22 | 230.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.40 | 13.87 | 6.39 | 70.64 | 24.69 |
| P/FCF | 7.30 | 6.78 | 2.08 | 13.05 | 5.50 |
| P/FFO | 4.64 | 4.29 | 2.27 | 7.34 | 2.55 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.44 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates CLMT's fair value at $13.30 vs the current price of $33.68, implying -60.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.69 (P10) to $55.95 (P90), with a median of $23.53.
CLMT's current P/E of -12.6x compares to the industry median of 22.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -156.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover CLMT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $31.00 (range: $26.00 — $36.00), implying -8.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CLMT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.