MODEL VERDICT
Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $337.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $368.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $372.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $368.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $365.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $452.05 | +33.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $429.98 | +27.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $500.43 | +48.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $523.84 | +55.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $473.79 | +40.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $527.15 | +56.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $266.42 | -21.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $374.74 | +10.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $433.85 | +28.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $500.43 | +48.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $523.84 | +55.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $499.32 | +47.8% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $271 | $307 | $343 | $380 | $416 |
| Conservative (5%) | $277 | $314 | $351 | $387 | $424 |
| Base Case (7.2%) | $283 | $320 | $358 | $396 | $433 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $289 | $328 | $367 | $405 | $444 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.70 | 28.12 | 23.72 | 41.68 | 5.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.62 | 23.19 | 19.73 | 32.31 | 4.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.95 | 21.87 | 18.20 | 30.95 | 4.13 |
| P/FCF | 30.03 | 30.06 | 21.25 | 37.98 | 4.95 |
| P/FFO | 25.80 | 24.33 | 20.52 | 36.46 | 5.30 |
| P/AFFO | 31.06 | 29.52 | 24.83 | 43.48 | 6.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.43 | 3.26 | 2.76 | 4.88 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DPZ's fair value at $499.32 vs the current price of $337.77, implying +47.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $499.32 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $458.28 (P10) to $527.25 (P90), with a median of $492.20.
DPZ's current P/E of 19.2x compares to the industry median of 28.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -32.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.7x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
52 analysts cover DPZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $427.06 (range: $315.00 — $540.00), implying +26.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (28), Hold (23), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 11.9% is 1.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (18.4%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$808. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DPZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 13920.0% to approximately $808. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.