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Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$409.09
→
Intrinsic$168.87
-59%
$69.77$168.87$357.18
Market implies 27% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 12% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $409, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (27%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $70 → Bull $357. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $230 | $264 | $299 | $337 |
| 10% | $122 | $144 | $169 | $195 |
| 12% | $61 | $78 | $97 | $116 |
| 14% | $23 | $37 | $51 | $66 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($357) with 14% growth, 9% discount rate
- Conservative 12% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($70) implies 83% downside at 10% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 27% growth expectations vs 12% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 59% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$572.85M
Year 2$640.92M
Year 3$717.08M
Year 4$802.29M
Year 5$897.63M
Terminal$13.21B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate11.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$512.01MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.