MODEL VERDICT
Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $86.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $85.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $86.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $83.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $78.68 | Below threshold | +3.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.74 | 17.68 | 11.92 | 29.74 | 7.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.12 | 18.82 | 13.51 | 32.38 | 7.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.11 | 15.59 | 10.17 | 95.87 | 33.35 |
| P/FCF | 252.86 | 260.33 | 63.57 | 434.68 | 185.67 |
| P/FFO | 16.24 | 11.43 | 7.87 | 44.55 | 14.06 |
| P/TBV | 2.20 | 2.24 | 1.87 | 2.62 | 0.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.19 | 2.24 | 1.85 | 2.62 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.24 | 3.11 | 2.72 | 4.11 | 0.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 1 valuation metrics, the model estimates PEG's fair value at $78.79 vs the current price of $86.07, implying -8.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $78.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
PEG's current P/E of N/Ax compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a N/A discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.7x over 5 years. Signal: N/A.
32 analysts cover PEG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $88.80 (range: $81.00 — $98.00), implying +3.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PEG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.