Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX)
Valuation Overview•Is Dynavax Technologies Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Moderate quality score of 58/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
DVAX demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-14.2% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (3.2%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.9M | +19.4% | -14.2% | +51.1% | +38.0% | |
| EBITDA | $23.4M | — | -69.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $26.9M | +527.4% | -29.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.21 | +503.2% | -29.5% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $32.6M | -37.6% | -43.1% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 83.2% | 74.8% | 71.0% | 16.9% |
| Operating Margin | 3.2% | 7.3% | -21.8% | -3531.8% |
| Net Margin | -13.1% | 15.9% | -19.3% | -3522.2% |
| FCF Margin | 24.4% | 23.6% | -15.4% | -2969.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $0.08 | $0.05 | -38.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.14 | $0.21 | +50.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.12 | $0.14 | +16.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.03 | $-0.11 | -466.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.05 | $0.05 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.11 | $0.12 | +9.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.06 | $0.08 | +33.3% | ||
| Q2'24 | $-0.05 | $-0.07 | -40.0% |
Total return is +50.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +25.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +0.8% | -8.5% | — |
| 1Y | +50.5% | +25.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +6.3% | -13.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +11.7% | -1.1% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +0.4% | -12.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX) valuation, health, and returns.
Dynavax Technologies Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +38.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $21.53)
Dynavax Technologies Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $21.53 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $0.96 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $27.00 (implying +74.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Dynavax Technologies Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 58/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.4 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -0.4%.
Dynavax Technologies Corporation returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 5.5% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +3.6% in the last 12 months.
Dynavax Technologies Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +19.4% 1Y revenue growth and +503.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -14.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 11 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +74.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Dynavax Technologies Corporation include: -17.6% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.62x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.