MODEL VERDICT
Dynavax Technologies Corporation (DVAX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $15.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $15.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $15.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $15.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $15.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $5.23 | -66.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $0.14 | -99.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $3.23 | -79.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $5.91 | -61.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $8.49 | -45.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $5.77 | -62.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $6.51 | -58.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $3.13 | -79.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $5.67 | -63.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.02 | -54.7% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 66× | 72× | 78× (Current) | 84× | 90× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 31.31 | 24.68 | 5.40 | 63.85 | 29.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 217.92 | 34.26 | 5.52 | 797.62 | 386.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 163.77 | 11.96 | 5.72 | 473.62 | 268.36 |
| P/FCF | 20.39 | 23.48 | 5.74 | 28.87 | 10.83 |
| P/FFO | 526.22 | 35.25 | 5.35 | 2029.03 | 1002.03 |
| P/TBV | 21.09 | 7.95 | 2.77 | 111.07 | 39.83 |
| P/AFFO | 29.79 | 25.19 | 5.48 | 58.70 | 26.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.90 | 7.64 | 2.76 | 49.70 | 16.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.90 | 7.75 | 2.22 | 69.60 | 23.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates DVAX's fair value at $7.02 vs the current price of $15.50, implying -54.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.32 (P10) to $8.52 (P90), with a median of $6.72.
DVAX's current P/E of 77.5x compares to the industry median of 16.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +380.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 31.3x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
11 analysts cover DVAX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $20.00 — $32.00), implying +74.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: DVAX trades at the 8750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (31.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DVAX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.