MODEL VERDICT
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $10.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $9.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $8.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $8.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $7.27 | Pending | +19.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $56.34 | +455.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $56.26 | +454.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $64.69 | +538.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $62.43 | +515.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $66.18 | +552.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $68.49 | +575.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.20 | +612.1% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $11 | $11 | $11 | $16 | $21 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $11 | $11 | $16 | $22 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $11 | $11 | $17 | $23 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $12 | $12 | $12 | $18 | $23 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 49.98 | 1.79 | 0.50 | 286.66 | 106.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates NVAX's fair value at $72.20 vs the current price of $10.14, implying +612.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.34 (P10) to $100.93 (P90), with a median of $70.02.
NVAX's current P/E of 3.9x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -82.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover NVAX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.50 (range: $11.00 — $18.00), implying +43.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (3), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NVAX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.