MODEL VERDICT
Dycom Industries, Inc. (DY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $433.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $410.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $399.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $395.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $393.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $536.56 | +23.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $557.51 | +28.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $397.74 | -8.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $131.98 | -69.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $369.13 | -14.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $98.74 | -77.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $534.17 | +23.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $390.31 | -10.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $409.63 | -5.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $390.94 | -9.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $129.30 | -70.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $319.56 | -26.3% | 100% | 75 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 51× | 55× (Current) | 59× | 63× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (14%) | $424 | $460 | $496 | $532 | $568 |
| Conservative (22%) | $456 | $494 | $533 | $572 | $611 |
| Base Case (34.5%) | $501 | $543 | $586 | $628 | $671 |
| Bull Case (47%) | $546 | $592 | $639 | $685 | $731 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.39 | 41.96 | 23.62 | 87.63 | 23.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.97 | 25.39 | 17.02 | 40.47 | 10.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.08 | 10.88 | 7.61 | 20.27 | 4.01 |
| P/FCF | 64.21 | 60.02 | 9.11 | 127.69 | 59.05 |
| P/FFO | 12.42 | 12.18 | 6.22 | 23.06 | 5.31 |
| P/TBV | 7.81 | 7.03 | 4.75 | 14.46 | 3.13 |
| P/AFFO | 29.27 | 29.38 | 15.58 | 54.88 | 14.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.14 | 3.81 | 1.88 | 8.04 | 1.97 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.04 | 0.92 | 0.48 | 2.12 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates DY's fair value at $319.56 vs the current price of $433.60, implying -26.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $319.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $317.67 (P10) to $399.07 (P90), with a median of $357.99.
DY's current P/E of 54.7x compares to the industry median of 50.2x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +9.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
21 analysts cover DY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $432.71 (range: $360.00 — $510.00), implying -0.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (19), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 5.8% is 3.2 percentage points above the 7-year average (5.1%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$303. (2) Multiple compression: DY trades at the 5770th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (43.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that DY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3020.0% to approximately $303. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.