Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$90.86
→
Intrinsic$62.02
-32%
$38.75$62.02$106.23
Market implies 22% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 14% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $91, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (22%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $39 → Bull $106. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $77 | $85 | $93 | $102 |
| 10% | $51 | $56 | $62 | $68 |
| 12% | $37 | $41 | $45 | $50 |
| 14% | $28 | $31 | $34 | $38 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($106) offers 17% upside at 16% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 14% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($39) implies 57% downside at 11% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 22% growth expectations vs 14% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 32% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.68B
Year 2$1.91B
Year 3$2.17B
Year 4$2.46B
Year 5$2.80B
Terminal$41.16B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate13.5%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.48BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.