MODEL VERDICT
Edap Tms S.a. (EDAP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $6.76 | +37.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 78 industry peers | $6.40 | +30.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.02 | +22.7% | 100% | 63 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 291.52 | 312.44 | 50.50 | 511.61 | 231.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 198.08 | 126.66 | 29.16 | 509.85 | 220.18 |
| P/FCF | 72.22 | 69.39 | 55.85 | 91.42 | 17.95 |
| P/FFO | 133.46 | 59.67 | 38.69 | 375.81 | 162.30 |
| P/TBV | 4.25 | 4.14 | 2.20 | 6.53 | 1.61 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.88 | 3.88 | 2.01 | 5.74 | 1.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.36 | 3.23 | 1.29 | 6.65 | 1.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates EDAP's fair value at $6.02 vs the current price of $4.91, implying +22.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.02 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.62 (P10) to $9.38 (P90), with a median of $6.47.
EDAP's current P/E of -8.1x compares to the industry median of 36.2x (28 peers in the group). This represents a -122.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover EDAP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.00 (range: $2.00 — $2.00), implying -59.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EDAP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.