MODEL VERDICT
Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad Anónima (EDN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $25.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $27.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $28.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $29.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.48 | Pending | +0.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $148030.27 | +576117.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $50857.09 | +197864.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $6501.88 | +25209.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $3492.53 | +13494.9% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $962180.20 | +3745249.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $182523.17 | +710383.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $148030.83 | +576119.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $123145.28 | +479251.0% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (26%) | $35255 | $35255 | $44069 | $61697 | $79325 |
| Conservative (42%) | $39812 | $39812 | $49765 | $69671 | $89577 |
| Base Case (65.2%) | $46198 | $46198 | $57747 | $80846 | $103945 |
| Bull Case (88%) | $52574 | $52574 | $65717 | $92004 | $118291 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.11 | 0.49 | 0.11 | 10.05 | 3.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.34 | 1.29 | 0.47 | 2.31 | 0.90 |
| P/FCF | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.89 | 0.39 |
| P/FFO | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/AFFO | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates EDN's fair value at $123145.28 vs the current price of $25.69, implying +479251.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $123145.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42942.28 (P10) to $82525.88 (P90), with a median of $57195.69.
EDN's current P/E of 5.2x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (38 peers in the group). This represents a -75.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover EDN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EDN trades at the 1050th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EDN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 30260.0% to approximately $103. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.