MODEL VERDICT
Enterprise Financial Services Corp (EFSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $58.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $58.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $58.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $57.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $57.87 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $72.48 | +23.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $73.87 | +25.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $79.09 | +34.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $49.04 | -16.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $72.48 | +23.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $66.55 | +13.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.23 | +17.5% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $39 | $50 | $62 | $73 | $84 |
| Conservative (9%) | $41 | $52 | $64 | $75 | $87 |
| Base Case (14.0%) | $42 | $54 | $67 | $79 | $91 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $44 | $57 | $69 | $82 | $95 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.19 | 11.68 | 8.81 | 13.58 | 1.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.16 | 8.16 | 0.92 | 14.84 | 4.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.61 | 7.74 | 0.85 | 13.53 | 3.75 |
| P/FCF | 9.55 | 8.83 | 6.40 | 14.64 | 2.78 |
| P/FFO | 10.17 | 10.85 | 8.15 | 12.13 | 1.47 |
| P/TBV | 1.46 | 1.42 | 1.19 | 2.00 | 0.28 |
| P/AFFO | 10.55 | 11.23 | 8.42 | 12.91 | 1.62 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 1.06 | 0.87 | 1.45 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.96 | 2.72 | 2.21 | 3.85 | 0.68 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates EFSC's fair value at $69.23 vs the current price of $58.89, implying +17.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $63.01 (P10) to $71.96 (P90), with a median of $67.49.
EFSC's current P/E of 11.1x compares to the industry median of 13.6x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -18.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
9 analysts cover EFSC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.00 (range: $68.00 — $68.00), implying +15.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EFSC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (26.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2200.0% to approximately $72. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.