MODEL VERDICT
Eagle Financial Services, Inc. (EFSI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $64.05 | +64.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $42.89 | +10.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $50.95 | +30.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $49.67 | +27.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $64.05 | +64.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $42.16 | +8.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.30 | +29.0% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $22 | $31 | $40 | $49 | $58 |
| Conservative (6%) | $23 | $32 | $41 | $50 | $59 |
| Base Case (8.8%) | $24 | $33 | $42 | $52 | $61 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $24 | $34 | $43 | $53 | $63 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.15 | 10.83 | 8.43 | 11.92 | 1.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.80 | 6.66 | 1.90 | 17.69 | 6.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.15 | 5.98 | 1.76 | 16.17 | 5.71 |
| P/FCF | 10.47 | 9.60 | 7.29 | 18.21 | 4.01 |
| P/FFO | 9.26 | 9.64 | 7.93 | 10.81 | 1.16 |
| P/TBV | 1.10 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 1.24 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 9.94 | 10.37 | 8.45 | 11.38 | 1.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.10 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 1.23 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.01 | 2.16 | 1.10 | 2.90 | 0.67 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates EFSI's fair value at $50.30 vs the current price of $39.00, implying +29.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.79 (P10) to $51.86 (P90), with a median of $48.23.
EFSI's current P/E of 9.0x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a -39.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover EFSI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.00 (range: $40.00 — $40.00), implying +2.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EFSI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.