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Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$60.94
→
Intrinsic$36.96
-39%
$20.15$36.96$68.91
Market implies 17% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $61, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (17%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $20 → Bull $69. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $47 | $53 | $59 | $65 |
| 10% | $29 | $33 | $37 | $42 |
| 12% | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| 14% | $12 | $15 | $17 | $20 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($69) offers 13% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($20) implies 67% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 17% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 39% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$622.52M
Year 2$672.33M
Year 3$726.11M
Year 4$784.20M
Year 5$846.94M
Terminal$12.46B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$576.41MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.