MODEL VERDICT
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $62.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $63.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $65.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $64.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $64.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $40.34 | -35.8% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $31.98 | -49.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $44.26 | -29.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $45.79 | -27.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $23.14 | -63.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $45.65 | -27.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $87.27 | +38.9% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $55.36 | -11.9% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $53.47 | -14.9% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.80 | -6.4% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $54 | $60 | $66 | $72 | $78 |
| Conservative (7%) | $56 | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 |
| Base Case (10.3%) | $57 | $64 | $70 | $77 | $83 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $59 | $66 | $73 | $79 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 44.29 | 42.22 | 31.40 | 61.30 | 10.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.90 | 38.60 | 31.21 | 50.04 | 5.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.66 | 29.72 | 21.28 | 33.63 | 4.00 |
| P/FCF | 51.23 | 52.61 | 36.31 | 68.60 | 11.76 |
| P/FFO | 27.38 | 26.34 | 20.37 | 35.56 | 5.22 |
| P/TBV | 8.79 | 9.20 | 6.89 | 10.79 | 1.36 |
| P/AFFO | 55.06 | 55.94 | 33.85 | 72.67 | 14.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.73 | 9.20 | 6.68 | 10.79 | 1.44 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.29 | 9.82 | 7.92 | 12.47 | 1.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELS's fair value at $58.80 vs the current price of $62.82, implying -6.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.09 (P10) to $67.24 (P90), with a median of $62.05.
ELS's current P/E of 32.5x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +37.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 44.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
21 analysts cover ELS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $70.57 (range: $66.00 — $75.00), implying +12.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ELS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2750.0% to approximately $80. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.