MODEL VERDICT
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $372.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $344.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $323.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $311.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $311.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $575.94 | +54.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $515.73 | +38.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $619.86 | +66.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $339.21 | -9.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $578.39 | +55.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $103.19 | -72.3% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $815.54 | +118.8% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $427.72 | +14.8% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $548.58 | +47.2% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $284 | $336 | $387 | $439 | $490 |
| Conservative (5%) | $290 | $343 | $396 | $448 | $501 |
| Base Case (6.9%) | $295 | $349 | $403 | $457 | $510 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $302 | $357 | $412 | $467 | $522 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.30 | 17.86 | 13.96 | 21.13 | 2.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.30 | 14.10 | 12.14 | 16.92 | 1.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.02 | 12.06 | 10.51 | 14.12 | 1.35 |
| P/FCF | 16.72 | 16.55 | 8.45 | 24.50 | 4.76 |
| P/FFO | 13.76 | 14.26 | 10.79 | 16.46 | 2.02 |
| P/TBV | 51.87 | 38.83 | 17.35 | 89.03 | 29.34 |
| P/AFFO | 16.46 | 17.35 | 12.76 | 19.41 | 2.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.60 | 2.48 | 1.77 | 3.43 | 0.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.39 | 0.83 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELV's fair value at $548.58 vs the current price of $372.68, implying +47.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $548.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $458.10 (P10) to $620.17 (P90), with a median of $536.66.
ELV's current P/E of 14.8x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -35.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover ELV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $382.38 (range: $331.00 — $425.00), implying +2.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ELV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6690.0% to approximately $622. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.