MODEL VERDICT
Elevance Health Inc. (ELV) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $320.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $342.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $346.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.74 | $325.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $372.83 | Below threshold | -12.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $558.52 | +74.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $512.26 | +60.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $427.08 | +33.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 5 industry peers | $331.52 | +3.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $548.18 | +71.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $92.59 | -71.1% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1563.75 | +388.7% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $435.78 | +36.2% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $535.51 | +67.3% | 100% | 100 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $232 | $284 | $336 | $387 | $439 |
| Conservative (5%) | $237 | $290 | $343 | $396 | $448 |
| Base Case (6.9%) | $242 | $295 | $349 | $403 | $457 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $247 | $302 | $357 | $412 | $467 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.30 | 17.86 | 13.96 | 21.13 | 2.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.09 | 13.93 | 11.98 | 16.72 | 1.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.27 | 13.17 | 11.71 | 15.23 | 1.29 |
| P/FCF | 16.72 | 16.55 | 8.45 | 24.50 | 4.76 |
| P/FFO | 13.74 | 14.26 | 10.79 | 16.46 | 2.00 |
| P/TBV | 51.87 | 38.83 | 17.35 | 89.03 | 29.34 |
| P/AFFO | 16.44 | 17.35 | 12.76 | 19.41 | 2.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.60 | 2.48 | 1.77 | 3.43 | 0.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.39 | 0.83 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates ELV's fair value at $535.51 vs the current price of $320.00, implying +67.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 100/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $535.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $450.42 (P10) to $583.14 (P90), with a median of $516.74.
ELV's current P/E of 12.7x compares to the industry median of 22.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -42.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover ELV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $387.14 (range: $332.00 — $425.00), implying +21.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 100/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ELV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (3.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7850.0% to approximately $571. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.