Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$320.00
→
Intrinsic$467.80
+46%
$280.50$467.80$840.56
Market implies 4% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests ELV could have 46% upside at 11% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $320, the market prices in only 4% growth — below historical 11%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $280 → Bull $841. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $600 | $663 | $730 | $802 |
| 10% | $381 | $423 | $468 | $516 |
| 12% | $265 | $296 | $329 | $365 |
| 14% | $194 | $218 | $244 | $271 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($841) offers 163% upside at 13% growth, 8% discount
- 32% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (4%) ≤ historical CAGR (11%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($280) implies 12% downside at 9% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Net Income Projection
Year 1$6.29B
Year 2$7.00B
Year 3$7.78B
Year 4$8.64B
Year 5$9.61B
Terminal$152.22B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate11.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Net Income$5.66BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses Net Income (FCF not meaningful for insurers). See FAQ below for full methodology.