MODEL VERDICT
Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $33.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $35.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $32.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $32.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $31.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $33.11 | -2.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $14.68 | -56.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $32.30 | -4.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $22.90 | -32.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $20.61 | -39.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $20.70 | -38.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $4.05 | -88.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $25.54 | -24.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $23.86 | -29.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $39.00 | +15.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $17.70 | -47.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.70 | +73.4% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 | $40 |
| Conservative (5%) | $30 | $33 | $35 | $38 | $41 |
| Base Case (6.3%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
| Bull Case (9%) | $31 | $34 | $36 | $39 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 91.47 | 91.57 | 21.24 | 184.71 | 68.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 85.76 | 81.96 | 24.33 | 175.01 | 61.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 65.86 | 66.66 | 20.76 | 120.14 | 39.17 |
| P/FCF | 56.33 | 45.08 | 20.03 | 127.20 | 38.35 |
| P/FFO | 74.53 | 52.24 | 17.10 | 163.73 | 60.15 |
| P/TBV | 52.86 | 27.03 | 5.09 | 172.92 | 58.52 |
| P/AFFO | 92.30 | 63.91 | 20.38 | 210.73 | 77.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 29.42 | 19.25 | 3.98 | 60.76 | 22.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.06 | 8.27 | 2.93 | 32.16 | 10.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates ENPH's fair value at $58.70 vs the current price of $33.85, implying +73.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $33.24 (P10) to $55.11 (P90), with a median of $43.56.
ENPH's current P/E of 26.2x compares to the industry median of 25.0x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +4.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 91.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
55 analysts cover ENPH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $43.48 (range: $21.70 — $57.00), implying +28.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (26), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ENPH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -2.0σ, meaning margins are 2.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 48160.0% to approximately $197. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.