Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$214.17
→
Intrinsic$157.77
-26%
$99.04$157.77$269.27
Market implies 27% growth for 5 years
ENSG trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $214, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (27%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $99 → Bull $269. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $198 | $217 | $237 | $258 |
| 10% | $131 | $144 | $158 | $172 |
| 12% | $94 | $104 | $114 | $125 |
| 14% | $71 | $78 | $86 | $95 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($269) offers 26% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($99) implies 54% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 27% growth expectations vs 20% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 26% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$444.86M
Year 2$533.83M
Year 3$640.59M
Year 4$768.71M
Year 5$922.45M
Terminal$13.57B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$370.71MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.