MODEL VERDICT
Empire Petroleum Corporation (EP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 62 industry peers | $2.52 | -21.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 63 industry peers | $2.15 | -32.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $2.96 | -7.4% | 100% | 48 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 6.97 | 5.82 | 3.64 | 12.61 | 4.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.97 | 5.82 | 3.64 | 12.61 | 4.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.90 | 5.19 | 0.58 | 6.72 | 2.57 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates EP's fair value at $2.96 vs the current price of $3.20, implying -7.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $2.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.74 (P10) to $4.05 (P90), with a median of $2.86.
EP's current P/E of -5.9x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (49 peers in the group). This represents a -150.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for EP.
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for EP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.